MODELING THE GROWTH RATE OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE EXPORTS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING A LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL

Dilnoza Majidova

Authors

Dilnoza Majidova Termez State University, Uzbekistan

Keywords:

logistic differential model, export growth rate, econometric identification, market capacity, fruit and vegetable exports, Surkhandarya region.

Abstract

The study is devoted to modeling the growth rate of fruit and vegetable exports in Surkhandarya region using a logistic differential econometric approach. Export dynamics are considered as a nonlinear process with a saturation limit determined by market capacity, production potential, and logistics constraints. The evolution of export volume is described by the following differential equation:

where - is the export volume at time , -is the intrinsic growth coefficient, and - represents the maximum potential export capacity of the region.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

1. Greene, W. H. (2018). Econometric Analysis (8th ed.). Pearson Education.

2. Verhulst, P. F. (2020). Logistic growth models and their applications in economic systems. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Economics, 12(3), 145–160.

3. Nerlove, M., & Bessler, D. (2019). Dynamics of agricultural supply and export response. Agricultural Economics Review, 21(2), 67–85.

4. FAO (2024). The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Trade and Development Report. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

5. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidenti huzuridagi Statistika agentligi (2024). Qishloq xo‘jaligi va tashqi savdo ko‘rsatkichlari. https://stat.uz